Sunday, August 22, 2004
More confusing polls
Some interesting polls out in the United States on the war in Iraq.
Earlier in the week I referred to a recent Associated Press poll suggesting that the majority of Americans now think that the decision to go to war was a mistake. But according to another new poll, this time from CBS, 49% of Americans believe that the US did the right thing by taking action in Iraq - up by 4% since July, while 44% believe that the US should have stayed out - down by 3% since the previous month.
A more in-depth research on public attitudes has been conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. The PIPA notes a decrease in support for war (putting it more in line with the Associated Press poll). More intriguingly, however, most Americans seem to be hearing different things to what the White House is actually saying.
For example, 60% of the polled believe that the Administration is currently saying that Iraq had actual weapons of mass destruction before the war, and according to a further 20%, that Iraq has no actual weapons but major programs to develop them. 43% believe that the Administration is currently saying that Iraq gave major assistance to al Qaeda and according to a further 27%, that Iraq was involved in September 11.
The pollsters are mystified, as these misinterpretations of the Bush Administration's pronouncements tend to cut across political lines and are reasonably consistent among both the well informed and the less well informed sections of the population. Are people hearing what they want to hear, or are they not listening at all? the pollsters ask. The most obvious answer, of course, is that people get their news through the filter of the mainstream media. How then can we blame them for misunderstanding the Administration's positions?
But what do Americans believe themselves as opposed to believing what the Administration is saying? 35% say that Iraq gave substantial support to al Qaeda and a further 15% that Iraq was involved in S11. 35% say that Iraq had WMDs and 19% say that at the very least had major programs to develop them.
Yet - 69% now believe that Bush's decision to go to war was based on wrong assumptions. This is a curious result - people who don't think that Iraq had WMDs and wasn't connected to al Qaeda (less than half of the polled in each case) would obviously think that the decision to go to war in Iraq was based on the wrong assumptions (weapons of mass destruction and terrorism being the most prominent justifications for going to war). But where does that leave the other 20% or so within the 69% who based on the other results believe in WMDs and the terrorist link, yet still think that Bush went to war on based on wrong assumptions? There's just no way to please everyone.
The wonders of public opinion never cease.
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Earlier in the week I referred to a recent Associated Press poll suggesting that the majority of Americans now think that the decision to go to war was a mistake. But according to another new poll, this time from CBS, 49% of Americans believe that the US did the right thing by taking action in Iraq - up by 4% since July, while 44% believe that the US should have stayed out - down by 3% since the previous month.
A more in-depth research on public attitudes has been conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. The PIPA notes a decrease in support for war (putting it more in line with the Associated Press poll). More intriguingly, however, most Americans seem to be hearing different things to what the White House is actually saying.
For example, 60% of the polled believe that the Administration is currently saying that Iraq had actual weapons of mass destruction before the war, and according to a further 20%, that Iraq has no actual weapons but major programs to develop them. 43% believe that the Administration is currently saying that Iraq gave major assistance to al Qaeda and according to a further 27%, that Iraq was involved in September 11.
The pollsters are mystified, as these misinterpretations of the Bush Administration's pronouncements tend to cut across political lines and are reasonably consistent among both the well informed and the less well informed sections of the population. Are people hearing what they want to hear, or are they not listening at all? the pollsters ask. The most obvious answer, of course, is that people get their news through the filter of the mainstream media. How then can we blame them for misunderstanding the Administration's positions?
But what do Americans believe themselves as opposed to believing what the Administration is saying? 35% say that Iraq gave substantial support to al Qaeda and a further 15% that Iraq was involved in S11. 35% say that Iraq had WMDs and 19% say that at the very least had major programs to develop them.
Yet - 69% now believe that Bush's decision to go to war was based on wrong assumptions. This is a curious result - people who don't think that Iraq had WMDs and wasn't connected to al Qaeda (less than half of the polled in each case) would obviously think that the decision to go to war in Iraq was based on the wrong assumptions (weapons of mass destruction and terrorism being the most prominent justifications for going to war). But where does that leave the other 20% or so within the 69% who based on the other results believe in WMDs and the terrorist link, yet still think that Bush went to war on based on wrong assumptions? There's just no way to please everyone.
The wonders of public opinion never cease.
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