Chrenkoff

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

CNN spins the bounce

CNN seems to be quite happy to be able to bring you the smallest post-convention bounce in the polls. None of the double-digit leads of the Time or Newsweek polls here:

"The percentage of likely voters who said he was their choice for president rose from 50 right before the convention to 52 immediately afterward. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic nominee, was the choice of 45 percent of the likely voters interviewed in the most recent poll. He had 47 percent in the poll taken August 23-25."

The conclusion, therefore, is pretty clear:

"Bush's convention bounce appeared to be 2 percentage points."

Or maybe not:

"Still, the 2 percentage point bounce could be illusory, since the poll's margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

So maybe there's no bounce at all. And even if there is, it's nothing to brag about:

"Incumbents have gotten an average bounce of slightly more than 6 points in previous elections, so Bush's apparent bounce seems small by historical standards."

Here CNN has probably switched from likely to registered voters, but in any case this figure is actually just under 5.6% for the last seven incumbents, and just over 4.6% for the last three. But what's a few points between friends?

Alas, CNN does nothing to explain, or excuse, Bush's apparently minimal boost in their post-convention opinion poll. Which, coincidently, is what the venerable news channel did to Kerry's no-bounce after the Democrat convention, by giving plenty to opportunity for the Dem spin machine to spin the results away:

"The figures from this poll supported Democrats' statements leading up to the convention that Kerry would likely not see a 'bounce,' the term for a temporary increase in a candidate's support after a significant event. Democrats said the Kerry campaign was already riding a bounce going into the convention.

"Kerry's campaign argued that challengers historically run behind incumbents by about 15 points heading into a convention. Instead, Kerry entered the convention already polling neck and neck with Bush.

"Also, Kerry chose his running mate, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, earlier than any previous presidential hopeful, and received the bounce that usually accompanies that decision well in advance of the convention."

So when Kerry doesn't receive a bounce it doesn't matter because he's already been performing very well prior to that, whereas when Bush doesn't get it, well, he's underperforming. By historical standards, you know. True, Kerry might have been receiving his post-convention bounces pre-convention, but looking at the actual numbers, so has Bush: since July 8-11 to September 3-5 when the current poll has been taken, his support went up from 46% to 52% - that is by six points (and 5% among registered voters). Over the same period, Kerry's fell from 50% to 45% - or five points.

Oh well.

# posted by Arthur : 8:07 pm