Saturday, October 30, 2004

Kerry and African-American vote 

John Kerry's been doing a lot of black churches campaigning lately, trying to convince the African-American community that he would be the second African-American president in US history.

If the polling is anything to go by, his efforts aren't paying off:
"Senator John Kerry beats President Bush among African American voters (69 to 18 percent) according to a new poll released today by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.

"Only 22 percent of African Americans give President Bush high job ratings, 67 percent of them view him unfavorably, and almost three-quarters of them disapprove of the president's handling of Iraq.

"And yet, in a surprising contradiction, more African Americans say they are willing to vote for President George W. Bush on November 2 than did in 2000, even though his favorable rating is lower now than it was four years ago."
Twice as many , in fact.

Pundits are skeptical:
" 'If they're saying Bush is at 18 percent among black voters, that's a non-starter,' said Morris Reid, a Democratic communications strategist who said blacks consider Mr. Bush's record so terrible that 'if he gets 5 percent of the African-American vote, I'll be shocked.' Some Republicans also scoffed at the numbers privately, saying Mr. Bush will be lucky to match the 8 percent of the black vote that he received in 2000."
For the Republicans, it's just hosing down expectations, for the Dems it's some very tortured logic - don't believe the African-Americans when they say they'll vote for Bush; it's impossible.

Still, a swing by African-Americans towards Bush would more than compensate for any swing against by Arab and Muslim Americans. We'll find out soon enough.


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